TNT Q4 results likely to be overshadowed by logistics sale, tax issues
TNT NV’s presentation of fourth quarter results on Monday is likely to be overshadowed by possible news on the sale of its logistics division or the alleged tax irregularities at some of its subsidiaries, analysts polled by AFX News said.
Net profit is seen at 147-165 mln eur, down from 191 mln under Dutch GAAP after an exceptional charge for the sale of the French logistics division, and sales are expected to come in at 3.5-3.6 bln eur, compared to 3.6 bln under GAAP.
EBIT is seen at 241-262 mln eur, from 349 mln.
Speculation about a possible break-up of TNT is rife after management in December announced that its Logistics division is up for sale.
‘In a break-up scenario, we believe US express delivery companies FedEx and UPS with, for instance, La Poste France would be highly interested, from a regional point of view and for reasons of strategy – none of them would be pleased if one of their competitors snapped up TNT Express,’ said Van Lanschot analyst Geert Jan Hoppers.
Van Lanschot holds TNT at ‘buy’ with a 33 eur price target.
Rabo Securities analyst Philip Scholte takes a more cautious stance on possible news surrounding the Logistics sale.
‘We do not yet anticipate any concrete news of the Logistics activities besides qualitative remarks such as ‘enough interest’ and ‘we stick your our expectation of a small book profit’, said Scholte, who will also be looking for any possible news on the ongoing internal investigations into possible tax irregularities at some of its subsidiaries.
Rabo holds TNT at ‘hold’ with a 27 eur price target.
Thijs Berkelder of brokerage Petercam anticipates that TNT may have to take substantial one-off charges to deal with the tax irregularities.
‘In our forecasts, we – for cautiousness sake – have included a one-off charge of 800 mln eur and structurally higher legal charges, to be valued at around 200 mln eur, hopefully implying that the outcome of the investigations can only surprise on the upside,’ Berkelder said.
Petercam rates TNT at ‘buy’ wit a 35.14 eur price target.
