TI: Parcel volumes expected to increase to 189 billion in 2023
The Express and Small Parcels 2023 Report from Transport Intelligence (Ti)– a provider of market research to the global logistics industry – shows a picture of normalising activity, as the market shrunk by 0.6% y-o-y in 2022 to a value of €523,080.6m in real terms.
A tentative recovery in demand is to be expected in 2023 following the rapid softening of parcel volumes in 2022. As such, the global express market is expected to grow by 3.6% y-o-y to a value of €542,108m, with global parcel volumes growing by 4.7% y-o-y to 189,120m. Recovery is expected in both the international and domestic markets.
Global Express & Small Parcels 2023 – Key highlights:
1. In 2022 the global market shrunk 0.6%.2. In 2023 the market is expected to show a tentative recovery in demand, growing by 3.6% y-o-y.3. Out to 2027, the market is expected to grow at a 5% CAGR.4. The international market is expected to grow by 5.2% in 2023, slightly quicker than the domestic market.5. B2C is expected to continue to dominate the market.6. Although 41.2% of respondents believe pressures will intensify over the next 12 months, 38.2% believe pressures will ease, and margins will likely be positively impacted.7. Improving route optimization will improve delivery efficiency, speed up parcel delivery, reduce fuel and time wastage, and improve customer satisfaction.
Nia Hudson, Research Analyst at Ti says: “The express and parcels market has passed through an extraordinary three years since the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic. Companies are now in a situation where they have had to implement significant price increases to counter falling volumes, resulting in another unusual market situation where volumes are falling but operators are able to continue increasing revenue. Looking forward, we expect to see a slight recovery in real growth into 2023, although year-on-year growth is expected to be the lowest in almost a decade according to Ti’s data. We should however be careful to paint this figure in too much of a negative light – it may be better to characterise as a normalisation following a period of intense growth.”
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