HKPC: End of De Minimis Thresholds “reshaping trade dynamics”
The Q4 2025 results for the DHL Hong Kong Air Trade Leading Index (DTI) have been published. This quarterly survey aims to provide a comprehensive outlook on the air trade market and its underlying trends.
Key highlights of Q4 2025 include:
- The overall air trade index registered a modest uptick for this quarter, signaling a pause in the recent downward trend. This improvement is supported by a rebound in (re-)exports, indicating that market sentiment is bottoming out, with early signs of recovery beginning to emerge.
- Looking ahead to peak season, sentiment remains cautiously optimistic. About two-thirds of air traders expect shipment volumes to either remain stable or increase, indicating expectations for sustained business activity.
- In response to the need for greater resilience and cost management, nearly a quarter of air traders who have exported to the U.S. are consolidating shipments—demonstrating a pragmatic approach to navigating the current trade environment.
- Looking ahead, forward-thinking air traders are exploring new growth destinations. Nearly 18% of those who have exported to the U.S. are shifting shipments to emerging markets, with Southeast Asia standing out as the top destination—underscoring a strategic pivot toward regional opportunities.
- In Q4 2025, the Americas’ Index recorded a slight improvement, driven by a pickup in imports. Asia Pacific’s Index continued to hold steady, supported by the mild import-led recovery in Chinese Mainland and a strong rebound across both (re-)exports and imports in Japan market. In contrast, Europe’s index declined to its lowest level since 2023.
- Food & Beverage recorded the strongest improvement across all categories, reaching its highest level since 2024. Watches, Clocks & Jewellery posted a modest uptick, driven by an increase in (re-)exports. In contrast, Electronic Products & Parts experienced a sharp downturn, falling to its lowest level since 2024 due to a sharp decline in imports.
The DTI analyses the key attributes of business demands based on a survey of more than 600 Hong Kong companies that focus on in- or outbound air trading. An index value above 50 indicates an overall positive outlook, while a reading below 50 represents an overall negative outlook for the surveyed quarter. The further the reading is from 50, the more positive or negative the outlook is.
Mr Edmond LAI, Chief Digital Officer of HKPC, commented, “The Air Trade Index marks a significant point for the industry as we observe initial signs of stabilisation after an extended period of uncertainty. The shifts in key markets, particularly the Americas and Southeast
Asia, demonstrate the sector’s resilience and ability to adapt in challenging circumstances. Notably, the recent implementation of reciprocal tariffs and the elimination of De Minimis exemption on shipments from the Chinese Mainland and Hong Kong in the US are reshaping
trade dynamics, prompting traders to reassess supply chain strategies and market access. There is a noticeable increase in the emphasis on sustainability, with more enterprises prioritising carbon emission reductions and proactively exploring new, emerging markets to
cope with these evolving conditions. Looking forward to the upcoming peak season, we maintain a measured optimism that strategic planning and continued innovation will support long-term growth within the sector.
