Deutsche Bank unlikely to let Postbank get away
After missing out on one rare opportunity to expand in its domestic market, Deutsche Bank is unlikely to let another chance go begging, analysts believe.
Until recently, three retail banking operations were on the block in Germany creating an unprecedented opportunity for consolidation in a market dominated by state-owned savings banks.
That leaves Deutsche Postbank and the Dresdner Bank unit of Allianz (as the remaining options for any local player looking to expand.
Dresdner has long been linked to a deal with Commerzbank talks between the two have reportedly been stepped up in recent weeks, leaving Postbank as Deutsche Bank’s likely best bet for growth.
Deutsche Bank has performed better than many of its European rival in the credit crunch, still CEO Josef Ackermann is under pressure to diversify away from investment banking and build up its retail banking arm.
Ackermann has indicated Deutsche Bank, Germany’s biggest bank, is interested, saying back in February he would be willing to discuss a deal. But the question of price has been seen as a potential sticking point.
“Market rumors indicate Deutsche Bank has offered eight or nine billion euros (USD 12.7 billion to USD14.3 billion) for Postbank, while Deutsche Post is asking for at least 10 billion euros,” Koagne said.
Natixis’ Koagne said Deutsche Post could also be willing to lower its demands now that there are few other potential bidders.
That’s especially true since Postbank’s capitalization appears weak compared with its European rivals, raising the threat it would have to seek fresh capital if Deutsche Post decides to wait a while before selling, he added.
After missing out on one rare opportunity to expand in its domestic market, Deutsche Bank is unlikely to let another chance go begging, analysts believe.
Until recently, three retail banking operations were on the block in Germany — creating an unprecedented opportunity for consolidation in a market dominated by state-owned savings banks.
That leaves Deutsche Postbank and the Dresdner Bank unit of Allianz (as the remaining options for any local player looking to expand.
Dresdner has long been linked to a deal with Commerzbank talks between the two have reportedly been stepped up in recent weeks, leaving Postbank as Deutsche Bank’s likely best bet for growth.
Lloyds TSB had been seen as another potential contender for Postbank. But the U.K. group appears to have lost interest due to the low level of cost savings it would be able to achieve compared to a local player, Koagne said in a note to clients.
Other bidders can’t be ruled out, though Banco Santander’s agreement to buy U.K. mortgage bank Alliance & Leicester for 1.26 billion pounds (USD 2.5 billion) appears to have knocked another name off the dwindling list of potential buyers.
Deutsche Bank has performed better than many of its European rival in the credit crunch, still CEO Josef Ackermann is under pressure to diversify away from investment banking and build up its retail banking arm.
Ackermann has indicated Deutsche Bank, Germany’s biggest bank, is interested, saying back in February he would be willing to discuss a deal. But the question of price has been seen as a potential sticking point.
“Market rumors indicate Deutsche Bank has offered eight or nine billion euros (USD 12.7 billion to USD14.3 billion) for Postbank, while Deutsche Post is asking for at least 10 billion euros,” Koagne said.
Credit Mutuel’s acquisition of the Citi business was at the top end of market expectations, which could make it more likely that Deutsche Bank will match Deutsche Post’s demands, analysts said.
Natixis’ Koagne said Deutsche Post could also be willing to lower its demands now that there are few other potential bidders.
That’s especially true since Postbank’s capitalization appears weak compared with its European rivals, raising the threat it would have to seek fresh capital if Deutsche Post decides to wait a while before selling, he added.
