OUTLOOK TPG H1 net 243-270 mln eur vs 229

TNT Post Group NV will report Thursday first-half net
profit of 243-270 mln eur, up from 229 mln a year ago, with earnings per share
at 0.51-0.57 eur against 0.48 last year, analysts said. Analysts expect TPG to reiterate its forecast for a 20-25 pct increase in
full-year net profit, with first-half figures showing a similar percentage
increase. A stable Mail division along with acquisitions and double-digit
organic growth at the Logistics division are expected to offset any weakness in
the Express activities due to the economic slowdown. Results from last year will be adjusted to take account of new Dutch
accounting rules on pensions and restructuring costs, with the company yet to
release new figures. Analysts estimate first-half 2000 net to be adjusted
downwards to 202-214 mln eur from the reported 229 mln, which will help the
company achieve its full-year target. Analysts at Morgan Stanley Dean Witter expect the company to report
first-half net profit in line with the full-year forecast, although at the lower
end of that range. They estimate net profit at 270 mln eur or 0.57 eur per
share, up from an adjusted base of 223 mln or 0.47 eur per share. MSDW expects TPG's express operations in Australia to post a loss for the
period due to the economic slowdown in the region. The remaining express
operations should be able to exceed the company's long-term target of a 6.0 pct
EBITA margin, the analysts expect. The broker recently cut the stock's 12-month share price target to 27 eur
from 30 to take account of lower valuations across the sector. The rating
remains an 'outperform.' Kempen & Co analyst Richard Brakenhoff estimates first-half net of 257 mln
eur, with EPS at 0.54 eur, up from an adjusted 202 mln eur or 0.42 eur per
share. . "We foresee a 27 pct net rise due to the acquisition of CTI Logistx
and
several minor takeovers, partly offset by difficult market conditions at
Express in Australia and New Zealand," Brakenhoff said. Logistics should post a 74 pct rise in sales and doubling in EBIT, while
Express sales rise 7 pct, with EBIT up 25 pct, Brakenhoff estimates. Overall
group sales should rise 18 pct to 5.525 bln eur, while EBIT improves 10 pct to
570 mln eur. "The amortisation of goodwill will rise considerably, but non-recurring
costs will drop strongly," he added, forecasting first-half goodwill of 70 mln
eur versus 41 mln last year and non-recurring costs of 35 mln eur against 88
mln a year ago. Jan Kees Mons, analyst at UBS Warburg, also forecasts net profit of 257 mln
eur or 0.54 eur per share. The analyst lowered his price target for TPG shares to 27.0 eur from 30.0
eur to reflect the "somewhat higher uncertainty/lower visibility of the Express
operation." UBS forecasts the Mail division, TPG's largest, to report first-half sales
up 2.5 pct and EBIT up 6.9 pct to 370 mln eur. For the second half of this year, Mons sees more promising prospects for
TPG's Mail division, helped by an 8 pct price increase on domestic letter
stamps, a 4-5 pct increase in direct mail volume due to euro-related
advertising, and the international mail joint venture with Consignia and
Singapore Post, which started operations in July. NIB Capital estimates net profit of 243 mln eur or 0.51 eur per share
compared to an adjusted 214 mln eur or 0.45 eur per share. They rate the stock
'outperform' with a 28 eur per share price target. "We feel TPG will be quite immune to the economic slowdown. Its mail
activities are a stable cash cow, while logistics can even benefit from the
outsourcing trend," the NIB analyst said. "Besides, less aggressive growth
enables TPG to focus on margin improvement. It has a strong track record in
improving efficiency, which last year's results revealed." Deutsche Bank forecasts first-half net profit of 270 mln eur. The broker
rates the shares 'market perform', noting the stock is "fairly but fully valued
and we see better value in Deutsche Post." aib/cjs/cmr
For more information and to contact AFX: www.afxnews.com and www.afxpress.comRBC NEWS, 03rd August 2001