UK parcel carriers facing later, steeper Christmas peak
Britain’s parcel delivery firms are facing up to a peak in volumes that is expected this year to be later than ever, with volumes ramping up more quickly than ever. Today – or the first Monday in December – has in past years been the biggest shopping day of the year in the UK, but an increasing reliance on e-commerce, and growth in consumer confidence in using Internet merchants for their time-sensitive orders is suggesting that this year’s parcel volumes will continue to build from now until Christmas.
Global Freight Solutions (GFS), the parcel and carrier management specialist, says based on feedback from its carrier partners, the UK is likely to see four separate peaks in parcel traffic over the next few weeks.
GFS director Simon Veale said with consumer acceptance of Internet shopping among all age groups, last year’s volumes will be surpassed, with figures set to rise every week until Christmas.
The biggest peak should come in the last few days before 25th December, he said.
“It’s sometimes hard to forget that home deliveries still only account for 40% of all parcels moved across the UK during the peak season,” he said.
“However, the impact of e-commerce in the last seven years has been dramatic and the parcel industry has had to make huge changes in the way it works to meet the challenge that it represents.”
Veale said carriers had been preparing all year for this pre-Christmas period, but despite sector-wide advice to consumers to shop early, indications were that Internet shopping is occurring in “ever-increasing bursts”, and that parcel traffic will likely build to a peak on or around 17th December.
Last year saw a 15% growth in festive season parcel traffic, compared to the year before, according to GFS research. The company believes that by the end of 2016, online shopping will account for half of UK parcel volumes during the run-up to Christmas.
“Levelling out”
“Consumers are far more price conscious than ever before, waiting on deals and price cuts before making a purchase”
MetaPack, another company in the UK that provides delivery management services for online and multi-channel retailers, said it has been seeing a “leveling out” of e-commerce deliveries over the past month, compared to the two previous years.
The London-based company said it believed the trend also suggested there would be a “later, steeper” Christmas peak.
Patrick Wall, the MetaPack chief executive and founder, said week-on-week growth in volumes in the latter half of November had been “significantly behind” the same period in 2011 and 2010, with an 8.5% week-on-week increase, compared to 33.5% and 19.2% in the same period over the past two years.
MetaPack said “Black Friday” on the 23rd of November and “Cyber Monday” on 26th November had seen daily volumes increase in the UK by 33% and 45% respectively, and that there has been particularly strong growth in clothing and sports goods sold online this year.
But it said the figures suggested that volumes will grow even stronger through this month.
Wall said; “The growing confidence in the retail and carrier market, along with the mild weather, seems to create a more relaxed atmosphere which will also induce a later rush and a steeper peak as we move into December and past payday this week.
“The figures also show consumers are far more price conscious than ever before, waiting on deals and price cuts before making a purchase,” said the CEO of MetaPack, which is holding a conference on home delivery issues in London in February.
Post-Christmas
West Sussex-based GFS said the big delivery companies were now also looking to extend their festive operating capacity beyond Christmas Day itself.
Having experienced a comparatively quiet period once the pre-Christmas rush was over no previous years, Veale said this was no longer going to be the case from this year.
“High street sales used to begin on Boxing Day but, thanks to the Internet, retailers can trade on Christmas Day itself when the ‘bricks and mortar’ stores are still closed,” said the GFS director.
“It has meant e-commerce firms having to consider how they manage deliveries not only up to but beyond Christmas Day, something which they have never had to do before.”
