Low growth for German CEP market as demand slumps
The German express and parcel market has seen growth drop back sharply in recent months due to the financial crisis and economic slowdown, and only low growth is now expected in 2009, according to an in-depth new study presented.
“This trend continued through the first half of 2008 but in the second half-year it was clear that demand was falling strongly,” commented BIEK president Gunnar Uldall at a media presentation in Berlin. This reinforced the role of the CEP sector as an early economic indicator, he noted.
As a result of the drop in demand, the German market will probably slow to about 2pct -3pct growth in revenue terms this year, and then grow only about 1pct -2pct in 2009, Uldall said. Low growth rates over the following few years would mean the German market would grow to about EUR 15 billion in 2012, he added. Low volume growth is also expected.
“The long-term expected growth rate of up to 2pct a year despite the financial crisis lies above the overall GDP growth rate,” Uldall stressed. “The key role of this industry for the German economy is thus confirmed. Although the high increases of 5pct annual growth in recent years will hardly be achievable in the short term, cautious optimism is justifiable in view of the continuing trend to international production,” he stated.
Future growth would be generated by the continuing increase in cross-border shipments, especially to and from Central and Eastern Europe, as well as from higher-margin value-added services, Uldall predicted. Changes in industrial production might also benefit the sector by generating more volumes of small shipments rather than large freight loads.
Nevertheless, CEP operators faced higher costs, including a forthcoming increase in motorway usage charges, and would have to decide whether to seek price increases, the BIEK president said. DHL Express Germany is planning to increase rates by 3pct on December 1 to compensate for higher operating costs.
To promote more sustainable transport modes, the express and parcels sector is open to talks with Deutsche Bahn about using rail services as an alternative to road transportation for long-distance north-south and east-west routes, Uldall also said.
