The Board of Directors of La Poste discussed the 2008 outlook for the Group
Organic growth in Group turnover expected to be in the order of 2% in 2008. Organic growth in Group turnover should be of the order of 2% in 2008. This is lower
than the initial forecast for the financial year, mainly due to the noticeable acceleration of the drop in volumes of mail.
The Group’s business environment is affected by the slowdown in the economy, the first signs of which were noted in the first half-year, and which has become more marked since August.
Mail turnover should show an organic decrease for the 2008 financial year compared to
2007. Since it constitutes a means of communication between companies and their customers, mail is affected by the slowdown in the direct marketing programmes of advertisers. In addition, companies are further rationalizing administrative mail, in particular for major corporate clients, either due to the economic slowdown or to a decrease in the level of correspondence with their customers. Finally, mail is affected by the substitution and the use of email instead of physical mail. The total decrease in mail volumes should exceed 3% in 2008, which is similar to the average decrease recorded by the major postal operators in Europe, but higher than the annual rate of -1% recorded since 2003. In addition, the tariff adjustments for mail were moderate in
2008, and were lower than inflation on charges, in particular for fuel.
The Parcels-Express division should show satisfactory internal growth in turnover,
even if the economic slowdown recorded in the first half-year in certain European countries (Spain, Ireland, the UK) increased in the autumn. In recent weeks there has been a downward trend in volumes in most countries where this service operates.
La Banque Postale should achieve a very high level of new money collection in 2008.
However, these mainly concern short-term savings, to the detriment of current accounts and long-term savings. In addition, in response to increased demand by individual customers, the number of home loans granted should show a significant increase compared to 2007, thanks to the bank’s lending capabilities.
In this difficult environment, which should also affect 2009, the Group intensified its cost
control programmes introduced in the second quarter of 2008. These programmes should
result in a reduction in costs about €200m from June 2008 to June 2009. However, the cuts achieved in 2008 will only make it possible to partly offset the impact on the 2008 earnings of the drop in mail volumes. As a result, unless there is a further significant worsening in the environment by the end of the year, the operating margin excluding non-recurring items should be about 4% in 2008, compared to 6.2% in 2007.
The new context resulting from the slowdown in the European economy has forced the
Group to be even more selective in implementing its investment plans, in particular in
view of its structural indebtedness, which it aims to reduce in the medium term.
However, in 2008 the Group should invest over €1.2bn in internal programmes, i.e. almost 90% of the planned amount. On the other hand, external growth investments will be limited to 40% of the original budget.
The deterioration in the economic climate has therefore resulted in the implementing of
strong operational measures aimed at protecting the Group’s profitability, which will be completed and extended in 2009. In addition, this makes it all the more necessary to implement to strategies identified in the plan «Performance and Confidence 2008-2012»: upstream diversification of the Mail business, in all areas of document management; completion of the European network of the Parcels Express division, which is mainly a road network; development of the product range of La Banque Postale, open to all and prioritizing the simplicity of customer relationships; improvement of customer reception in post offices, and completion of the programme to refurbish the La Poste retail brand outlets.
The Group is determined to adapt to the difficulties of the economic environment, and is taking steps to modernize and optimize its industrial plant, serve its customers more efficiently, develop its activities and strengthen its growth areas.