Spreading the load on Black Friday

Consumer interest in Black Friday 2015 could be nearly four times as high as 2014, according to research carried about by UK parcel carrier Yodel. While only 8% of the shoppers surveyed placed an online order on Black Friday 2014, 30% said that they will participate in the internet promotions this year, which will take place on 27 November.

Yodel’s statistics are based on a survey of 6,371 people conducted by eDigitalResearch between 16 and 22 June, which forms part of the carrier’s ongoing ‘Have Your Say’ research programme.

In a statement issued today (13 July), Yodel urged: “With planning for the Christmas peak already underway across the retail and supply chain industries, the findings highlight the need for retailers, fulfilment houses and parcel carriers to work together so they can respond to uplift in demand over the cyber weekend.”

Yodel’s statement then went on to put forward a proposal which could alleviate some of the pressure that this surge in demand will place on the parcel delivery sector.

“With a finite next day delivery capacity in the parcel industry, a simple and cost effective solution may be that more than three quarters (76%) of the shoppers surveyed said that they are happy to wait a little longer for orders placed on Back Friday, as long as they’re kept informed about progress. In fact over a quarter (27%) of respondents said they would be happy if their order took an extra three days during seasonal sales and 28% would wait an extra two days. Just a fifth (21%) would only wait one day extra and only 13% said they wouldn’t be prepared to wait at all.

“Spreading deliveries at this time would automatically smooth the dramatic peak in parcels and create more capacity.

“For those customers who just can’t wait, approaching half (44%) said they would be willing to pay more for next-day delivery for orders placed on Black Friday.”

For its part, Yodel said that it was gearing up for the Black Friday peak by “optimising its network to cope with such uplifts in demand” – and this will include four new strategically placed ‘super’ service centres, with more planned to open by the end of the year.

Commenting on the findings, Yodel’s executive chairman, Dick Stead, said: “2014 was the year that online Christmas shopping in the UK changed forever, with retail websites crashing, warehouses straining and the majority of carriers struggling to cope with unforecast volumes. Our research shows that 2015 is set to break the mould once again, with nearly four times as many people planning to take advantage of the Black Friday online promotions.

“Yodel has already made significant investment to cope with the increased demand. While this has created additional capacity and efficiency, it does not change the fact that there is finite next-day delivery capacity across the parcel industry.

“Therefore it’s reassuring that the majority of consumers are telling us that they are prepared to wait a little longer for their delivery during peak promotions. For them the chance to bag a bargain is more important than the speed it arrives, and this will automatically create extra capacity across the industry and enable us to keep prices at a level that retailers and their shoppers expect.”

Stead maintained that the key to getting Black Friday right this time will be better communication and managing expectations.

“Since last Black Friday we’ve been listening even more intently to customers, and we’ll be sharing this insight and other data with our retail clients to enable them to provide us with accurate daily forecasts,” said Stead. “This year we will be limiting our next day capacity and will only accept the parcel volumes agreed with our clients in order to protect service levels and ensure that shoppers have the best delivery experience possible.

“Part of this joint partnership approach will require retailers to engage their marketing departments, and be responsible in only offering the next-day delivery capacity that has been agreed with their carriers.”

Stead gave a presentation on the subject of “Managing Peaks and Troughs” at Triangle Management Services’ Mail & Express Delivery Show (MEDS), which took place in London’s Olympia Conference Centre on 30 June. During his presentation, he unveiled some of the survey findings and also made a similar plea for spreading the Black Friday load.

The topic sparked some lively debate at the show. Many argued that retailers should ensure that their forecasts are more accurate, so they don’t get caught out with an unexpected need for extra delivery capacity. However, there were others who felt that some of the carriers may have to shoulder at least part of the criticism, for accepting work they could not cope with and not keeping closer tabs on their capacity.

Accurate forecasting, realistic expectations and clear communication would certain help to reduce the problem. But commentators have warned that this is not so easy to achieve in the e-commerce world, where each new mega sales promotion – whether it is Black Friday or the upcoming “Prime Day” – can be a leap into uncharted territory.