Deutsche Post set to unveil 9-mth EBITA 2.21-2.78 bln eur

Deutsche Post World Net AG is expected to unveil on Thursday 9-month EBITA in the range of 2.21-2.78 bln eur compared with 2.039 bln for the same period last year, partly due to a strong third-quarter performance in the logistics segment, analysts said.

Analysts forecast 9-month net profit at 800-988 mln eur from 869 mln last time, on sales of 31.387-32.37 bln from 28.81 bln.

Some analysts believe the company will reiterate its full-year 2004 forecast for EBITA, which Deutsche Post said is expected to be between 7.5 pct and 12.5 pct higher than 2.975 bln last year.

‘I think Deutsche Post will stick to its forecast but I believe they would only reach the lower end of the range,’ according to one analyst who declined to be identified.

Deutsche Post’s forecast range of 7.5-12.5 pct growth for this year’s EBITA corresponds to between 3.198 bln eur and 3.347 bln.

DZ Bank, which anticipates third quarter EBITA of 563 mln eur and sales of 10.681 bln, said it has lowered its 2004 EPS estimate partly due to anticipated ‘poor’ earnings in the mail segment.

DZ Bank said it expects the quarterly results to be ‘quite good’ because logistics and financial services segments would have performed ‘well’, but the mail and express divisions would have been ‘a bit weaker’.

JP Morgan said it expects third quarter EBITA down by 1.1 pct because the quarter is seasonally weak for the Mail and Express divisions and hence, is normally a difficult quarter from which to draw key trends.

‘However, we expect mail EBITA to be weaker than usual due to higher than average mail volume attrition, although a number of accounting restatements are likely to cloud any deeper analysts of the reported results,’ JP Morgan said.

HVB said the Logistics division would have profited from the ‘strong’ performance in freight forwarding and contract logistics while Financial Services had continued its positive earnings trend.

mog/ab