DHL Hong Kong: we remain cautiously optimistic about the sector’s growth momentum
Hong Kong’s air trade outlook strengthened further in the third quarter of 2026, with the Overall Air Trade Index climbing to its highest level since the Q2 2023 peak, although traders remain cautious over geopolitical tensions that are expected to drive up freight rates and operating costs.
The findings were released in the Q3 2026 DHL Hong Kong Air Trade Leading Index (DTI), the first quarterly survey of its kind in Hong Kong to provide a comprehensive outlook on the city’s air trade market and underlying trends.
The Overall Air Trade Index rose 4.4 points to 41.7 in Q3 2026, marking its highest reading since Q2 2023. The improvement was driven primarily by stronger (re-)exports, which gained 4.7 points and continued to outpace imports, whose index increased by 3.9 points. The latest reading signals a continued recovery in Hong Kong’s air trade outlook.
Market sentiment improved across all major regions. The Americas recorded the strongest performance and its highest reading since the Q2 2023 peak, while the Asia Pacific region climbed above the 40-point level, supported by robust export activity. Europe also rebounded during the quarter.
Performance also strengthened across most commodity groups. Gifts, Toys & Houseware posted the strongest growth, reaching a historical high, while Food & Beverage and Electronic Products & Parts also registered solid gains. Apparel & Clothing Accessories remained broadly stable.
Despite the improving outlook, businesses continue to face external headwinds. Amid ongoing uncertainty in the Middle East and developments around the Strait of Hormuz, around two-thirds (67%) of air traders expect upward pressure on air freight rates during the second half of the year. Higher fuel and insurance costs, changes in shipping routes and transit times, and cargo capacity constraints were among the key concerns cited.
In response to rising fuel costs, more than 80% of air traders said they plan to adopt cost-allocation measures. Among them, 51% intend to share the additional costs with customers, while 30% expect to pass the increases on in full.
Nearly half (47%) of respondents expect fuel prices to remain elevated for at least the next three months (34%) or to rise further in the near term (13%), highlighting continued uncertainty over operating costs.
The survey also examined the impact of the European Union’s removal of the €150 low-value duty exemption threshold. Among affected companies, the most commonly anticipated impacts were more complex customs clearance procedures affecting efficiency and lead times (30%), greater customer price sensitivity (28%), and increased overall costs, including tariffs, customs declaration and clearance fees, and related charges (23%).
To prepare for the regulatory changes, companies expressed the greatest interest in learning more about customs clearance procedures and processes (28%), customs declaration documentation requirements (22%), and customs duties based on HS codes and related handling fees (18%).
Mr Edmond Lai, Chief Digital Officer of HKPC, said the latest results reflected the sector’s resilience despite global uncertainties.
“Hong Kong’s air trade outlook continued to strengthen in Q3 2026, with the Overall Air Trade Index reaching levels close to the peak of Q2 2023, driven by sustained growth in both (re-)exports and imports. The broad-based improvement across major markets, particularly the Americas and Asia Pacific, together with stronger performance in key product categories, reflects the sector’s resilience amid an evolving trade environment. While developments in the Middle East and around the Strait of Hormuz may place upward pressure on freight rates and fuel costs, air traders are proactively adapting through cost-management measures and operational optimisation. Looking ahead, we remain cautiously optimistic about the sector’s growth momentum.”
The DHL Hong Kong Air Trade Leading Index analyzes business demand based on a quarterly survey of more than 600 Hong Kong companies engaged in inbound or outbound air trade. An index reading above 50 indicates an overall positive outlook, while a reading below 50 signals a negative outlook for the surveyed quarter. The further the index is from 50, the stronger the positive or negative sentiment.
