HKPC: Hong Kong’s air trade sector continues to demonstrate resilience

The Q4 2026 results for the DHL Hong Kong Air Trade Leading Index (DTI) have been published. This quarterly survey, which is the first-of-its-kind in Hong Kong, aims to provide a comprehensive outlook on the air trade market and its underlying trends.

Key highlights of Q4 2026 include:

• The Overall Air Trade Index remained above the 40-point mark in Q4 2026, posting its second-highest reading in the past two years. Supported by stronger imports and improving activity across Asia Pacific and Europe, the index stayed above the levels recorded during most of 2026, signalling a resilient air trade environment.
• Looking ahead to peak season, air traders remain cautiously optimistic. More than half expect volumes to remain stable, while nearly a quarter anticipate growth, reflecting an anticipated business resilient outlook.
• Following the introduction of new U.S. tariff measures in July 2026, air traders exporting to the Americas most frequently cited higher logistics and operating costs, adjustments to sourcing and trade flows, and greater market uncertainty affecting business planning as the key expected impacts.
• Regarding the EU’s planned B2C handling fee scheduled for November 2026, more than one-quarter of sellers exporting to Europe expected limited business impact. However, many anticipated pricing adjustments, additional customs and documentation requirements, as well as pressure on shipment volumes and profit margins.
• Asia Pacific and Europe recorded further improvements, supported by strong growth in the Chinese Mainland’s index and the strengthening of import activity. In contrast, the Americas registered the largest decline among all markets, reflecting softer import and export sentiment following strong performance in Q3.
• Commodity performance was led by Food & Beverage, which reached its highest level in three years, while Electronic Products & Parts climbed to a two-year high. Meanwhile, Apparel & Clothing Accessories and Watches, Clocks & Jewellery softened amid weaker (re-)export activity.

The DTI analyzes the key attributes of business demands based on a survey of more than 600 Hong Kong companies that focus on in- or outbound air trading. An index value above 50 indicates an overall positive outlook, while a reading below 50 represents an overall negative outlook for the surveyed quarter. The further the reading is from 50, the more positive or negative the outlook is.

Mr Edmond LAI, Chief Digital Officer of HKPC, commented, “The Q4 2026 results indicate that Hong Kong’s air trade sector continues to demonstrate resilience amid a changing global trade landscape. While export momentum moderated during the quarter, sustained growth in imports and improving conditions across Asia Pacific and Europe helped maintain overall market stability. The improvement in peak-season sentiment is also a positive signal, reflecting greater confidence among air traders compared with recent years. Nevertheless, ongoing policy changes in major markets and rising operating costs remain important considerations. Moving forward, greater supply chain flexibility, market diversification and the effective use of emerging technologies will be key to sustaining competitiveness and capturing new opportunities.”