US cargo imports set for 6% growth in first half of 2011

The latest cargo figures in the United States have retail experts hopeful that the economic recovery is taking hold – despite high unemployment and rising commodity prices. The National Retail Federation and maritime logistics consultancy Hackett Associates said this week that import cargo volume at America’s major retail container ports is expected to be 11% up compared to the same month last year.

The first half of 2011 is on track to see a 6% year-on-year increase in import cargo volumes, according to their latest Global Port Tracker report, which monitors ports in the Los Angeles, Oakland, Seattle, New York-New Jersey, Norfolk, Charleston, Savannah and Houston areas.

The latest actual numbers showed US ports handling 1.14m 20-foot equivalent units (TEU) in December 2010, up 5% compared to the same month in 2009.

The figures represented the 13th month in a row with year-on-year improvements, just over a year on from a 28-month streak of year-on-year declines.

The National Retail Federation’s vice president for supply chain and customs policy, Jonathan Gold, said: “Strong growth in 2010 has retailers cautiously optimistic that the economic recovery is finally taking hold.

“While high unemployment and rising commodity prices are cause for concern, retailers are encouraged by six consecutive months of retail sales gains and improved consumer confidence.”

The Federation said January’s import figures remained steady at 1.14m TEU, 6% up on January 2010, while February’s figures are expected to be 1.11m TEU, an 11% increase on the same month in 2010.

The industry estimates suggest March import volumes will be 1.16m TEU (up 8%), with 1.22m TEU in April (up 7%), 1.3m TEU in May (up 3%) and 1.37m in June (up 4%).

The total forecast for the first half of 2011, 7.3m TEU, would represent a 6% growth compared to the first half of 2010, slower growth than the 17% growth seen last year compared to the recession-hit first half of 2009.

Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett said 2011 would see the return of the consumer as the “main driving force” of liner imports, despite lingering high unemployment rates in the US.

He said: “The short-term indicators that drive our model suggest that there will be solid growth this year but our caution is that the rate of growth seen in 2010 will not be repeated. We are projecting that annual growth will be in the 7 to 8% range.”

Intermodal

Separately, the Intermodal Association of North America said last week that international intermodal volumes “surged” 16.9% in the fourth quarter of 2010, adding up to an 18.5% increase for 2010 overall.

This was the highest growth seen since the Association began reporting intermodal statistics in 1996, it said.
Every quarter of 2010 saw increases in international intermodal volumes, it said, driven primarily by retailers rebuilding inventories. The growth followed several previous quarters of decline.

The latest Intermodal Market Trends & Statistics Report also noted that total domestic intermodal volumes during the fourth quarter was the highest yet recorded by the Association, topping 1.6m loads.

Domestic container growth was up 8.9% for the fourth quarter of 2010, pushing growth for the year to 13.3% compared to 2009 figures.

Overall intermodal volume was up 14.7% for the year compared to 2009, the report stated.