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Geojit Financial Services is bullish on Blue Dart, Abbott India

Blue Dart is an 81pct subsidiary of the DHL Group, Shah said. “The company has posted excellent December quarter results. It plans to compliment and widen service offerings. It has launched a new surface express product in CY07 called Dart Surfline, which is expected to grow 40-45pct per annum.”

Abbott India is a 65pct subsidiary of Abbott Inc USA, he said. “The company’s numbers are in line with expectation. It provides healthcare services through business units. The parent company Abbott Inc is a leading player globally and is focused on pharma.”
Q: What makes you so bullish on Blue Dart? Is it the sector as a whole or the fact that they had a stellar set of December numbers?

A: It is basically the sector considering the kind of growth potential. If you consider the number of MNC plans that are coming into India, logistics business is supposed to grow going forward from hereon. Considering the capex cycle that corporate India has, the entire sector in logistics looks quite good, whether it is Blue Dart or certain other reasonably low-end players.

Blue Dart is a 81pct subsidiary of DHL and is one of South Asia’s most integrated courier and logistics company. It also has the benefit of covering 220 countries, considering it is an 81pct subsidiary of DHL. Also, the distribution service spectrum is about to witness a fair amount of growth from hereon.

Blue Dart has been in the domestic market for a very long time and also has the expertise to deliver. Considering that companies like Tesco, Wal*Mart and Carrefour are opening their retail outlets in India, the services provided by Blue Dart would definitely tend to grow, keeping in mind the kind of retail boom we are seeing.

We have a price target of Rs 750 on Blue Dart over a one-year timeframe. Possibly, if you have a stretched out timeframe, it can even get better from hereon.

Abbott India is a 65pct subsidiary of Abbott Inc. USA. Abbott India provides healthcare solutions to its three segments – primary care, specialty care and hospitality care. The parent company Abbott Inc has got good number of products in its pipeline and is well poised to take advantage of the patent when it unfolds in India.

Considering the kind of growth that the healthcare business can possibly see in India, I think the topline and bottomline would definitely benefit. Abbott could possibly well be poised to leverage the parent company’s product line-up. We have a price target of about Rs 630 with a one-year timeframe.

Q: The volumes on both these stocks are dismally low. How would you explain the kind of price rise or interest in the counters on such low volumes?

A: With Abbott especially, it has traded only on BSE. In case you are a one-year plus kind of an investor, then these kinds of volumes should not make much of a difference, because you are not taking a trading call over here. The volumes are definitely low on both Abbott as well as Blue Dart. But if you have a delivery perspective and a one-year timeframe, then these kinds of low volumes should not deter you from making an investment.

Of course, the sectors that both these companies are placed in, tends to grow from hereon, on the domestic consumption growth story. So, considering these two points, volumes should not deter you from making an investment call on these two companies.

Q: Any disclosures?

A: No personal holdings. But since our company has got a buy report on both, our clients might be holding their positions in the two companies

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Why are SMEs so reluctant to switch postal operator?

Two years after the market for postal services was liberalised, it is not just the funding for the Mailing Preference Service which is under threat. Royal Mail is also starting to feel the impact. At the same time as mail volumes declined by 2 per cent in 2006/07, downstream access (DSA) licence holders accounted for 11.8 per cent of volume.

The effect of competition is disproportionate at this early stage – those DSA-mailed items accounted for 19 per cent of Royal Mail’s revenues. The reason why revenue share is higher than volume share can be found in the Business Customer Survey carried out by Postcomm in December 2007.

It found that among all mail users, 15 per cent were using multiple service providers. In the top segment, this figure was 35 per cent. Indeed, large business have been the quickest to switch, with 41 per cent using more than one mailing service provider.

Among SMEs, the picture is different. Postcomm found 21 per cent of medium-sized businesses were taking advantage of multiple mail providers, while only 17 per cent of small businesses were doing so.

This may explain why the IDMF in April will feature a Postal Switch Centre. Both DSA licence holders and overseas postal services will be grouped together in a specific area of the exhibition to try to encourage the mid-market to look at using rival postal services.

As Graham Cooper, managing director of OnePost, which is exhibiting in the switching centre, says: “There is a whole heap of activity in the mid-market company area and using an organisation like ours takes the pain out of it.”

His business is attracting 18 new clients per month and has passed the 10 million items monthly mark. “They are not all major direct mail users,” Cooper points out. Significantly for the opening up of the market, the DSA licence holders went for the big mailers first.

The early days of competition did bring with them anecdotal evidence of problems. Prime among these was a lack of logistical resources within the DSA operations. Two years on, investment has filled these gaps and mailing houses have learned to work across multiple providers efficiently.

End users are generally unaware of these problems. Instead, their focus has been principally on price and secondly on service and quality of service. For the mid-market, the answer in both of those areas is not that switching would lead to improvements.

Ben Allan is managing director of Tilt, an agency which publishes the collaborative marketing title Asrecommended. “We have looked at the postal services market from a cost perspective and no-one has got close to Royal Mail’s Mailsort 3,” he says.

With something like nine out of ten cold acquisition items being sent via this service, Royal Mail may have grounds for feeling secure in its market share. “The others are about 1p per item off,” says Allan.

He believes the significant account wins by rivals have been in other mailstreams. “Switchers appear to be those with time-sensitive items, like bills and statements. They are going to rivals which are competitive from a cost point of view. For direct mail prospect mailings, they are not competitive,” he says.

One service offered by DSA licence holders which has gained attention is the two-day delivery guarantee. Where a campaign is likely to trigger a high volume of calls, clients need to ensure they have the right resource in place. Knowing on what days a mailing will arrive is helpful and can lead to cost-savings.

But Allan argues that many acquisition campaigns do not need this: “The two-day drop is not useful to us. Mailsort 3 drops over a ten-day period which is more than sufficient.”

Alternative providers simply do not exist for national brands that want to use unaddressed mail. “No-one has got the coverage,” says Allan. “Free newspapers don’t work well for financial services. Consumers respond to them at one-fifth the rate of Royal Mail unaddressed, but the medium only costs half the

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Revocation notice for Challenger Security Services (Admin) Limited

Postcomm has today gvien 30 days’ notice to revoke Challenger Security Services (Admin) Limited’s licence following receipt of the company’s consent to do so.

More information on licensing is available at the postal licences and operators section of the website.

http://www.psc.gov.uk/postcomm/live/policy-and-consultations/consultations/licensing–challenger-security-services/2008_02_25_Challenger_-_licence_revocation_notice.pdf

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Postcomm consults on licence application from LDS Cambridge Limited

Postcomm today began a 30-day consultation on the proposed grant of a postal operator’s licence to LDS Cambridge Limited.
Under the licensing framework that took effect from 1 January 2006, and was amended in January 2008, the licence would:
– allow LDS Cambridge Limited to provide all types of postal service;
– be issued for a rolling ten year period; and
– require the company to comply with copdes of practice on mail integrity (safety and security of the mail) and common operational procedures (designed to ensure the multi-operator market works well in practice).

The consultation notice and proposed licence can be found on the LDS Cambridge Limited consultation page.

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Adjacent postal markets in Germany (report in German)

1,500 companies with a market volume of €16.5bn

The Federal Network Agency in 2007 commissioned a research project on the markets for upstream and downstream postal services. It has published the findings today. MICUS Management Consulting GmbH analysed the markets for direct mail, transaction printing, address management, mailroom outsourcing, response processing and document storage, collecting data on market volumes, provider structure, pricing and the intensity of competition. The study also looked at the linkage between the areas analysed.

The study found there to be around 500 medium-sized and large companies (more than 10 members of staff) and 800 to 1,000 small companies operating in adjacent postal markets, generating a volume of around €16.5bn. Almost three quarters of this volume is accounted for by direct mail services. Currently, a trend towards outsourcing mailrooms can be observed amongst the customers, while providers are seen to be expanding the value chain to increase their margins and strengthen customer loyalty.

To date, there has been little analysis of the markets for upstream and downstream postal services. The MICUS study is one of the first to explore these areas. It was occasioned by the Agency’s desire to gather information on the potential for leveraging market power into adjacent areas, so that it could recognise and assess the potential for abuse.

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Global cargo firms keen to fly into India

The air cargo industry in India is all set to expand its wings. According to ministry of civil aviation, three international companies — FedEx, Malaysia Airlines (MAS) and Australia-based HeavyLift Cargo Airlines — have approached the ministry seeking details on setting up and expanding their operations in India.

The three freighter service providers have sought clarification on the recent Cabinet decision to increase the foreign direct investment (FDI) cap from 49 pct to 74 pct in the air cargo sector.

According to ministry sources, MAS plans to start a dedicated freighter service between Kuala Lumpur and Delhi this year and is also considering using Delhi as its cargo transit point from Amsterdam and Frankfurt. At present, MAS has no dedicated freighter services to India.

A World Air Cargo report says India is the leading international freight market in the sub-continent. Out of the total 1.4 million tonnes of international cargo that flew in and out of the region, India moved the maximum with 8.82 lakh tonnes. Kuljeet Singh, partner, Ernst and Young, feels there is a lot of scope for cargo airlines in India.

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German Economy Minister Glos to restrict Deutsche Post's VAT privilege

German Economy Minister Michael Glos plans to restrict Deutsche Post World Net AG’s value added tax privilege while expanding that of the company’s competitors, Euro am Sonntag reported, without citing sources.

So far, the company pays no VAT for its so-called universal service, including correspondences of up to 2000 grams, parcels of up to 20 kilograms and the dispatch of newspapers, it said.

The company’s competitors have to pay 19 pct of VAT for all their services, it added.

In the future, the universal service is to be restricted but will be VAT-free for all competitors of Deutsche Post, the magazine added.

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Oman Post delegation keen to boost ties with Emirates Post

A high-level delegation from Oman, led by Dr. Ahmed Bin Ali Bin Al Mewaly, Director of Privatisation, Ministry of Finance, Oman, visited Emirates Post and discussed areas of mutual interest.

The delegation held talks with Emirates Post officials, including Mr. Abdulla Al Daboos, President of Emirates Post Group, Fahad Al Hosani, Vice President, Emirates Post Group and Mr. Ibrahim Karam, CEO of Emirates Post

Emirates Post officials briefed the delegation on the advancements made by Emirates Post over the past few years and expressed strong desire for mutual cooperation between the two sides.

The delegation visited Ramoul Sorting Centre, Wall Street, Training & Development Centre, EMP, EDC and Empost, and showed interest in the various activities and operations of Emirates Post and subsidiaries. They toured different facilities and were briefed by Sultan Al Midfa, CEO of Empost, Mr. Abdullah Bin Ghalib, GMD, Wall Street, Ahmed Tahlak, CEO, EMP, Abdullah Al Ashram, CEO, EDC, Wiaam Ghanem, Director of Training Centre and Munther Bin Shaker, Director, Ramoul Sorting Centre.

The Omani delegation consisted of Saif Bin Nasser Al Mahrouqi, Director of Administrative Issues, Ministry of Trade and Industry, Mr. Hussain Bin Malallah Al Lawathi, Investment Consultant, Ministry of Finance & Economy and Mr. Ahmed bin Saleh Al Mewaly, Deputy Director General, Operations, Oman Post.

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