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Outlook Deutsche Post FY EBIT little changed; sales growth offset by margin fall

Deutsche Post World Net AG will this month report full year EBIT little changed from 2005, with higher sales offset by margin erosion in its mail activities and restucturing costs at its DHL Express business, analysts said.

DPWN has officially scheduled its earnings release for March 20, but market watchers expect the German logistics giant to release the figures either next Tuesday or Wednesday.

Analysts polled by AFX News expect EBIT to range between 3.680-3.934 mln eur compared to last year’s 3.755 bln, with sales rising sharply to 59.8-63.8 bln from 44.6 bln.

The net profit consensus lies at 1.978 bln eur, up 13.6 pct, with the bottom line declining to 730 mln from 1.02 bln in the fourth quarter.

The latter reflects shrinking margins at DPWN’s mail segment due to increased competition in Germany and Europe as a whole, analysts said.

One-off costs occurring from its ongoing revamp at DHL Express are also set to weigh, one analyst added.

While the company is targeting a complete turnaround of DHL Express unit by 2009, many market watchers expect a more speedy recovery.

Nicholas Ward at Deutsche Bank expects restructuring to be completed in 2008, assuming 100 mln eur of extraordinary costs in 2007.

BHF Banks’s Nils Machemehl added that anything later than that would not be ‘acceptable at an internal level’.

But not only the DHL unit will need to step up in 2007, analysts said, citing the company’s ability to fight off competition as one of its main risk exposures.

Goldman Sachs said a tough liberalisation in the mail segment by the German government will be a key risk to the company’s future success, with no offsetting drivers currently in place.

A more moderate liberalisation in line with European norms would, however, trigger an upward revision of forecasts at the US brokerage.

In addition, market watchers expect implementation costs arising from the 2005 acquisition of Exel to level off next year, with DPWN’s logistics division able to start pocketing synergy benefits.

Analysts are also looking to a potential further reduction in the stake owned by state development bank Kreditanstalt fuer Wiederaufbau (KfW), which currently holds 30.6 pct but has signalled it could sell up to 25.9 pct.

Deutsche Bank said an entry into DPWN by private equity firms should be seen in a positive light with the business offering ‘good quality brand, assets and networks’.

BHF Bank expects DPWN to raise its dividend to 0.80 eur per share from 0.70 eur in the year-earlier period.

BHF added that Deutsche Post could also pay a special dividend of 0.85 eur per share if a dispute with the EU over state aid payments made between 1994-1998 is settled in its favour.

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IQ Letternet to grow and rival Deutsche Post

German postal service provider IQ Letternet reportedly intends to dispatch 100 million letters this year and establish itself as one of the top three rivals to German national postal services provider Deutsche Post. Rainer Pliska, head of IQ Letternet, has said that the company is aiming to attain turnover of 500m euros by 2010 and a 5 per cent share of the market. The intention is to achieve the rise in turnover through organic and strategic growth.

In order to assure cooperation with 53 regional delivery services, Mr Pliska intends to set up a joint-stock company under the name of IQ in which partners will be able to invest, and to float the company on the stock exchange in 2011 at the earliest. In order to protect regional partners, Deutsche Post will not be considered as a potential investment partner.

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DHL to invest about USD110 mln for expansion in China

DHL is planning to invest USD110 million in China over the next few years. The investment will focus on infrastructure expansion, which includes more vehicles and service centers, and the training of staff in China, said Klaus Zumwinkel, board chairman of Deutsche Post World Net, DHL’s parent company. DHL has expanded its branch companies in China from 56 last year to 73, including a newly opened branch in Lhasa, capital of Tibet Autonomous region. From 2001 to 2006, DHL has invested USD 1 billion in China, accounting for half of its investment in the Asia-Pacific region.

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TNT Post forms strategic partnership

TNT Post, the UK arm of Dutch mail group TNT NV said on Friday it had formed a strategic partnership with the British Retail Consortium (BRC) to offer postal services to its members.

BRC members will be able to use TNT Post’s two-day service for pre-sorted mail with Britain’s Royal Mail continuing to carry out the final mile delivery to customers’ homes.

The BRC membership includes 85 percent of British retailers, such as Tesco, luxury department store Harrods, and baby goods retailer Mothercare.

The 6.5 billion pounds British mail industry was deregulated in 2006. Competition for letters in the UK had been limited to bulk mailings of 4,000 items or more. Bulk operators licensed by industry regulator Postcom are now able to compete fully with Royal Mail.

TNT Post, which also supplies postal services to Thames Water and BT Group said in January it had won a two-year contract to handle mail for British energy firm.

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Finland Post Annual Report

Finland Post Annual Report

Finland Post’s Financial Statements for 2006: Growth through International Logistics

• Consolidated net sales amounted to EUR 1,550.6 million, up 15 per cent. The strongest growth was in international logistics services. Of consolidated net sales, 23 per cent came from outside Finland.
• Operating profit totalled EUR 89.0 million, down 9% year on year. Operating margin stood at 6 per cent.
• Like-for-like operating profit improved by 3 per cent over the previous year.
• EUR 4.2 million transferred to the Personnel Fund, biggest in Finland.

Statement by Jukka Alho, President and CEO:

‘Finland Post aims to grow profitably and strengthen its position as an intelligent logistics services provider in northern Europe. In 2006, consolidated net sales rose by 15 per cent, most of this growth coming from outside Finland. However, in spite of a slight improvement in like-for-like operating profit, we cannot rest content with our cost trends.

Mail Communication increased its market share in direct marketing services. A fall in addressed letter mail volumes mainly affected 1st class letters. Over the next few years, the transformation currently underway in letter mail will require continuous adjustments while presenting us with major challenges in terms of improving our profitability.

Information Logistics was successful in data management services in particular, with customers e.g. in the banking sector outsourcing extensive business processes.

Acquisitions enabled Logistics to establish a foothold in Norway and Sweden and the business group reinforced its international transport network by entering into major partnerships in Europe. Logistics’ operations will also expand eastwards when the Moscow Logistics Centre opens in spring 2007.’

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Sweden Post Annual Report for 2006. Financial data

Sweden Post Annual Report for 2006. Financial data

Strong 2006 lays the ground for increased competitiveness

– Net sales totaled SEK 27,823m (25,277)
– Operating earnings totaled SEK 1,442 m (1,281)
– The fourth quarter was weighed down by costs of SEK 617m for Posten’s restructuring activities, which will result in annual cost reductions of SEK 300m
– Net earnings totaled SEK 1,013m (1,478)
– Equity-assets ratio was 33 (33) percent
– Cash flows from operating activities totaled SEK 2,602 m ( 2, 251)
– The Board proposes that SEK 400m (175) be paid out in dividends

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Post monopolies could be solution for EU – study

A new study commissioned by nine postal operators concludes that it could be better to keep the below-50 gramme mail monopoly in the EU rather than opening up the reserved area to full competition.

The European Commission wants the 50g reserved area in the EU’s 27 member states opened to full competition by 2009, as long as the so-called universal service obligation (USO) – delivery to all households and businesses irrespective of their geographical location – is retained in each country.

While backed by five member states – the Netherlands, Germany, the UK, Sweden and Finland – the plan is opposed by a nine-strong group of state-owned postal operators who feel the Commission’s current proposals would make it impossible for them to maintain the USO and remain competitive at the same time.

A study from UK consultants Oxera – commissioned by the postal services of France, Belgium, Luxembourg, Italy, Spain, Greece, Poland, Hungary and Cyprus – concludes that keeping the reserved area might be the best way of guaranteeing the USO.

“The reserved area scores well against the criteria of certainty and practicability. Moreover, given the low administrative costs, it would have the advantage of simplicity compared with other funding,” the study’s authors write.

“Mechanisms such as compensation funds funded with profit taxes, uniform access with allowed bypass, and forms of competitive tendering that auction the provision of the USO on a regional or national basis are likely to receive a low score,” they say.

The option of maintaining the reserved area is compared with other ways of funding the USO, some of them suggested by the Commission, such as compensation schemes to address any “unfair financial burden” on the state operator in providing the USO, state funding and competitive tendering.

Compensation funds have often been used to finance USO burdens, for example in the telecoms and electricity sectors in Australia, USA, France and Canada, the report points out. But any funding mechanism that involves some form of government funding subsidised from tax revenue would come under the EU state aid microscope, it adds.

Alternatively, competitive tenders could be designed as ‘reverse auctions’ where the winner is the operator asking for the lowest subsidy.

The report concludes: “If practicability is a key consideration of the authorities, the reserved area, access charges and, to a certain extent, state funding could provide an attractive solution.

“By contrast, mechanisms such as competitive tendering are unlikely to score well against this criterion. Therefore, the question of which mechanism is the most relevant to the postal sector is empirical, and one that may differ from country to country.”

The operators who commissioned the report have called for the Commission to present detailed studies on how the USO can be financed so that the European Parliament can have a full debate on the “risk” of liberalisation.

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USPS creative team wins six marketing awards

USPS working with its design team, Draftfcb, received recognition for a marketing campaign for the “Ship It, Win It” sweepstakes. The platinum MarCom Award recognized the creativity of leveraging a partnership with eBay to promote Priority Mail Flat Rate Boxes, offering customers a chance to win USD 10,000 to spend on eBay. The sweepstakes received a second MarCom Award (gold) for creative design as well as a silver award from POP Times magazine’s “Design of the Times” competition.

The MarCom Awards are an international competition for marketing and communications professionals, recognizing concept, writing and design of a marketing program. The Design of the Times Awards competition recognizes the in-store marketing industry’s best displays and retail promotions. Entries are judged on creativity in design, engineering, the ability to enhance brand image and the realization of sales and marketing objectives.

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