China air sector could grow by 10 percent
China’s aviation industry could expand by up to 10 percentage points above current growth rates if central controls are eased, the Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation (CAPA) said.
‘Double-digit air traffic growth is a certainly possible in an economy growing by 8-10 pct annually, but controls over fares, routes, aircraft purchases, airport charges, fuel supply and distribution services are keeping China’s aviation market from achieving its full potential,’ CAPA’s executive chairman Peter Harbison said in a report.
The report added that the current situation is unlikely to change soon.
Total domestic deregulation was attempted in the mid 1990’s with disastrous results on airline profitability and after the arduous airline consolidation efforts of the first part of this decade central controls will likely be maintained for the foreseeable future, the consultancy said.
‘An unfortunate by-product of these controls is that they may delay the advent of genuine domestic LCCs (low-cost carriers) in China’s market until the end of the decade,’ Harbison said, adding that China’s nascent independent private airline sector will find the going tough in this environment and will largely remain confined to serving niche roles.
Meanwhile, China Southern needs to quickly find a partner for its freight business or risk getting left behind, particularly with FedEx moving to Guangzhou, where China Southern is based, by 2008, CAPA said.
It added that China Eastern also needs a strategic investor to help turn around its struggling operation in the highly competitive Shanghai market.
CAPA also said that foreign investment in China’s airport sector is expected to gain momentum in 2007, led by Changi Airport International’s breakthrough agreement in Nanjing.
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