Analysts hand DHL bad new year's forecast (U.S.)
Worldwide shipper DHL is doomed to fail in the United States unless it radically shifts its business model, two well-regarded investment firms say.
Now, Morgan Stanley and Bear Stearns separately contend that DHL could eventually contract out operations to competitors, abandon its domestic delivery routes or sell off its U.S. operations entirely.
Facing U.S. operations that lost USD 900 million last year, the company’s new chief financial officer has “indicated the group needs to have a structural solution to U.S. losses” by March 6, according to the Morgan Stanley report.
“While we can’t respond to speculative reports, we have made a commitment to the U.S. market because of its importance to our overall global (DHL) Express strategy,” spokesman Richard Gibbs said in an e-mailed statement.
DHL, owned by German-based Deutsche Post, has spent billions of dollars to build up its domestic presence.
Nonetheless, U.S. operations lost USD 900 million last year and analysts don’t foresee a profit this year.
Morgan Stanley foresees three possible solutions:
Deutsche Post should try to sell all of DHL Express or at least the U.S. operations to UPS, FedEx or the U.S. Postal Service
DHL could fly parcels in but contract delivery to FedEx, UPS or the U.S. Postal Service
It could reduce its footprint to metropolitan areas and either contract pickup and delivery in the rest of the U.S. to the three carriers or offer only international delivery.
The first two options are less likely, according to Morgan Stanley.
In a November Goldman Sachs report, the firm said it was unlikely that DHL’s U.S. operation was on track to perform well.
Beh of Bear Sterns said any DHL decision to quit domestic operations would be difficult.
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