FedEx and UPS eye U.S. slowdown
Package shipping giants FedEx Corp and United Parcel Service Inc are walking a narrow path between expanding their businesses overseas and scaling back in the United States, where the economy has slumped.
But industry analysts say the two rivals should be able to weather a short-term slowdown without hefty drops in profits, with only a prolonged U.S. downturn presenting a serious threat.
Recessions push companies and individuals to rein in expenses, which includes package shipping. But revenues are not the only wild card for UPS or FedEx profits. The record surge in fuel prices for trucks and airplanes is another.
Like many U.S. transport companies, UPS and FedEx have been routinely passing on higher fuel costs to customers. But in a recession, such surcharges are just one more reason for customers to cut shipments.
Rising fuel costs also present big challenges to the shippers just in managing cash flows and hedging.
While Graf says FedEx has leeway in allocating its capital expenditures, growing markets like China remain a priority.
FedEx’s total capex spending should be about USD 3 billion for the fiscal year beginning on June 1, he said.
As part of its expansion plans, FedEx will open a new air hub in Guangzhou, China, in 2009.
At UPS, overseas spending that includes the booming China market will also remain core to its strategy in 2008 and 2009.
UPS’s new airport hub in Shanghai will open this year.
In their latest quarters, net profit declined 12 percent at UPS and fell 7 percent at FedEx. Both cited the sluggish state of the U.S. economy and high fuel costs.
Both companies still derive about three-quarters of their business from the United States, said Morningstar analyst Keith Schoonmaker.
The good news, highlighted by both, was growth in international package shipments, including a boost from rising U.S. exports on the back of the weak U.S. dollar.
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