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Of the top 25 North American East Coast airports reporting cargo figures for 2006, less than half reported greater than 1 percent growth. Eleven reported declining business while three, including John F. Kennedy International, reported less than 1 percent.
As with most statistics, the broad figures can be misleading, disguising changes below the surface. Virtually all of the airports are being hamstrung by a very stagnant domestic market, which has become divided into an integrator market, which is showing some growth, and the non-integrator market, which is contracting.

The major growth from the express carriers is being driven to some degree by what some call DPIJ – Domestic Portion of International Journey. This is throwing cargo traffic to the secondary and tertiary airports along the Eastern seaboard that are heavily supported by the express carriers, such as Piedmont-Triad International Airport, serving Greensboro, High Point and Winston-Salem, N.C..

Triad is already showing growth from the planned opening of a FedEx regional hub in mid-2009. “The catalyst for cargo growth starts with FedEx,” said Triad Executive Director Ted Johnson. “Even though FedEx has not opened up yet, there will be some industries moving into the area to use FedEx.” Triad reported a 3.8 percent growth in 2006.

Most of the express package deliveries will be probably be plane-to-truck, rather than plane-to-plane as is normal at the main FedEx hub in Memphis, Johnson said. A prime reason for the airport being selected for the regional hub was its road network, with five interstate highways passing nearby, providing fast delivery times north and south along the Atlantic seaboard, he said.

Another issue hitting secondary and tertiary airports along the east coast is the mass migration of industrial manufacturing from Europe to Asia in general and China in particular.

Consumer goods manufacturing has long since moved to Asia. Now industrial goods that were manufactured by companies in Europe are also being outsourced to Chinese or other Asian manufacturers.

While a lot of those goods obviously will be shipped by ocean transport, air cargo should grow following the air service accord signed between the United States and China last May. That accord will significantly increase flights allowed between the two countries, with flight frequencies to be doubled over the next five years. All restrictions will be lifted for cargo flights by 2011.

A lot of those manufactured goods will enter North America via the West Coast or into Chicago, and then head east by truck or train. However, airports such as Washington Dulles International, Atlanta’s Hartsfield-Jackson International or Toronto’s Lester B. Pearson International are showing strong growth from both freighter and belly capacity from Asia.

A major factor in that growth comes from U.S. carriers, which are increasing emphasis on international traffic, primarily United, Delta and US Airways.

Dulles is a secondary cargo airport that, on paper, has grown marginally over the past 10 years. In 1997, Dulles handled 350,000 tonnes of freight. In 2006, it handled just under 350,827 tonnes. After declines in the wake of September 11, the airport posted a 6 percent growth in 2006 over 2005.

Dulles handled 191,000 tons of international freight in 2006 compared to 120,000 tons in 1997, with a large part due to United’s increased international service. Today, United accounts for 42 percent of the cargo passing through Dulles, strictly through belly capacity, said Richard Norris, head of air cargo development for Dulles.

Atlanta’s Hartsfield-Jackson International is being heavily impacted by Delta’s increased emphasis on international traffic, said Warren Jones, Hartsfield-Jackson’s aviation development manager. While mail has dropped 80 percent and domestic cargo slid 9 percent during 2006, partly as a result of Delta’s shift to narrowbody aircraft for its domestic routes, internat