Post Recession Post?
The future of the Postal Service after the 2008/9 recession is an interesting topic – will it recovery, will we see it rise like a phoenix or become extinct like a dodo? Postal authorities around the world are reporting declines in mail volumes as a result of the recession. The question is will these volumes recover and if so to what level and in what timescale?
For many years the demise of the humble letter has been predicted as new technologies have introduced alternative ways for companies to communicate with their customers. Although these technologies, such as fax, text messaging, email etc. have had an impact, in many cases it has been positive rather than negative and has stimulated the market rather than suppressed it.
The availability of these burgeoning alternative channels coupled with the recession could have a compound effect on letter volumes as companies change channels and, through necessity, find value in the ‘cheaper’ alternatives. The question now is will these changes be permanent, will letter traffic bounce back as the economy starts to recover or will we see a long lasting switch from physical to electronic?
Current predictions are that economic recovery will be long and slow with various ‘experts’ quoting 2012 to 2015 before the economy recovers to pre 2007 levels. If these dates are realistic then the impact on the postal and delivery sectors could be significant and long lasting. If this recovery period is a reality what is the outlook for the delivery sector – how many companies will survive and what will the delivery market look like?
