
HKPC: small order volume and customisation have become the new norm

The Q1 2025 results for the DHL Hong Kong Air Trade Leading Index (DTI) have been published. This quarterly survey, which is the first-of-its-kind in Hong Kong, aims to provide a comprehensive outlook on the air trade market and underlying trends.
Key highlights of Q1 2025 include:
- The overall air trade index experienced a slight improvement due to growth in the Asia Pacific region as well as in the “Electronic Products & Parts” and “Imports” sectors.
- Looking ahead to the pre-Chinese New Year period in 2025, nearly a quarter of air traders are optimistic and expect better orders than the previous year.
- With Donald Trump taking office as the U.S. president on 20 January 2025, 76% of local air traders are closely monitoring the situation. More than 20% are exploring other markets in response to the uncertainties surrounding China-U.S. tensions and trade policies.
- In terms of opportunities in new markets, nearly half of local air traders saw potential in the Middle East market, followed by Eastern Europe and Latin America.
- In Q1 2025, air trade indices increased except in the Americas. The Asia Pacific Index observed a robust recovery, with China as the key growth driver. This counteracted the significant decline in the Americas, reflecting more complex and uncertain trading conditions for Americas-focused air traders.
- “Electronic Products & Parts” category saw notable growth this quarter, mainly driven by a healthy recovery in the imports and exports of China and Japan, ranking the highest in Q1 2025. “Gifts, Toys & Houseware” experienced the biggest drop, while “Apparel & Clothing Accessories and Watches, Clocks & Jewellery” remained stable.
- The B2C index experienced a significant increase after hitting its two-year low with air traders anticipating stronger sales volume and greater product variety.
Mr Edmond LAI, Chief Digital Officer of Hong Kong Productivity Council, commented: “The air trade index slightly picked up 1.2 points, driven by the improvement observed in imports. Despite fewer than 10% of local air traders experiencing a better-than-expected peak season in 2024, 22% anticipate improved order volumes for the pre-Chinese New Year period in 2025 compared to the previous year. Yet, amid the uncertainties arising from the transition of the US presidency, the Americas’ index dropped significantly by 8 points, with all commodity indices in the region experiencing declines of varying magnitudes, except for Gifts, Toys & Houseware. Most air traders (76%) have opted to closely monitor the situation without taking immediate action at this stage, while 21% are interested in exploring other markets. Among potential markets, air traders perceived the Middle East as having the most promise.
It is noteworthy that the Product Variety sub-index has ranked at the top since the second half of 2023, while Sales Volume remained flat. This reflects the emergence of a new trend ‘greater variety in fewer quantities’, where small order volume and customisation have become the new norm. This shift indicates that large-scale production is no longer the most effective strategy in today’s market. Air traders are advised to realign their strategies to adapt to this evolving trend to fit the market dynamics. HKPC will assist enterprises, particularly SMEs, navigate this transition by ensuring sustained competitiveness and growth in the dynamic global marketplace. This will be achieved through a series of support measures encompassing six key services to help SMEs address operational challenges, enhance confidence, and increase their overall competitiveness.”
Commissioned by DHL Express Hong Kong and compiled by the Hong Kong Productivity Council, the DTI analyses the key attributes of business demands based on a survey of more than 600 Hong Kong companies that focus on in- or outbound air trading. An index value above 50 indicates an overall positive outlook, while a reading below 50 represents an overall negative outlook for the surveyed quarter. The further the reading is from 50, the more positive or negative the outlook is.