Navigating tariff turbulence in 2025: What courier and postal leaders must know
Patrick Frith, Senior Director of Growth Cross Border at Avalara discusses how rising global protectionism — including new U.S. tariffs and the end of duty-free thresholds for Chinese imports — is forcing courier and postal leaders to adapt by investing in compliance, rethinking cross-border strategies, and evolving from delivery services to strategic logistics partners.
“As 2025 unfolds, global trade is being reshaped by a new wave of protectionist policies. The second Trump administration has swiftly dismantled several cornerstones of international trade, throwing a wrench into previously predictable logistics and delivery networks. For the postal and courier industry — especially those handling cross-border ecommerce and industrial logistics — this moment demands urgent strategic reassessment.
The end of de minimis for Chinese goods: A digital trade disruption
In a landmark move, U.S. Customs and Border Protection eliminated the de minimis threshold for goods imported from China and Hong Kong as of May 2, 2025. Previously, shipments valued under $800 could enter the U.S. duty-free — a loophole that powered platforms like Temu, Shein, and AliExpress. With the threshold abolished, even a $10 pair of earbuds now requires tariff classification, declaration, and in some cases, faces duties as high as 30%.
For courier companies, this change is more than procedural. It disrupts the entire model of low-value, high-volume direct shipping from Asia. Customs clearance is now more complex. Transit times may lengthen due to processing bottlenecks. Return logistics become trickier, especially under new duty-paid obligations. And ecommerce consumers, long accustomed to cheap, fast deliveries, may soon be rethinking their expectations.
The anticipated decline in parcel volumes from China underscores a deeper shift. To remain competitive, courier providers must reposition themselves as value-added partners — offering customs advisory services, delivered duty paid (DDP) shipping models, and sophisticated tariff mitigation strategies.
Steel, autos, and a new age of industrial tariffs
The policy changes don’t stop at ecommerce. The Trump administration has also rolled out a broader tariff regime targeting key industrial sectors. Imports of steel and aluminum now face a flat 25% tariff. Automotive imports and parts failing to meet USMCA origin rules are similarly penalized. While consumer electronics have been spared — so far — pharmaceuticals and semiconductors may be next.
This evolving landscape reshapes business-to-business shipping dynamics. Logistics providers servicing the automotive or construction supply chains must adjust pricing models, routing plans, and inventory timelines to account for these new trade barriers. Warehouse infrastructure and fulfillment operations that depend on imported materials may also need realignment.
Rising friction on the U.S.–Canada border
One of the most surprising developments in early 2025 has been the deterioration of U.S.–Canada trade relations. A new round of tariffs from Washington in March prompted swift retaliation from Ottawa. Affected sectors include consumer packaged goods, agriculture, and cross-border ecommerce. Notably, Canada is now considering revoking its own de minimis threshold, which currently exempts courier parcels under CAD 150 from duties.
Postal networks operating across North America are feeling the impact. Increased costs, customs delays, and new processing requirements threaten to upend the traditionally efficient flow of parcels between the two countries. Delivery companies are being forced to renegotiate contracts, reevaluate fulfillment center locations, and redesign last-mile delivery strategies.
Four strategic imperatives for courier executives
Surviving — and thriving — in this environment requires more than operational tweaks. It calls for visionary leadership. Courier and postal executives should take four immediate steps:
- Revisit cross-border ecommerce strategies. Partner with clients to navigate new tariff regimes and consider shifting fulfillment to countries like Mexico with more favorable trade terms.
- Invest in compliance. Automation tools for HS code classification and landed cost calculation can ease the growing burden. According to the Avalara and Censuswide survey, 48% of respondents are investing in new trade technology or tools for supply chain management and trade compliance. Training staff on new rules is equally vital.
- Adapt operations to the new normal. This might mean pivoting away from Chinese airfreight toward regional sourcing or strengthening redundancy in U.S.–Canada logistics routes.
- Communicate. Many ecommerce and wholesale clients remain unaware of the full implications. By offering education and tailored solutions, courier companies can position themselves as indispensable strategic allies.
Conclusion: From carriers to consultants
The turbulence of 2025 is not a passing storm. It’s a structural reordering of how global trade operates. For postal and courier companies, the opportunity lies in evolution — from transactional service providers to strategic logistics consultants.
Those who invest in compliance, rethink routing, and provide transparent, value-driven support will not only weather the disruption — they will define the next era of international delivery.”
Patrick Frith
Patrick Frith is responsible for cross-border development at Avalara, including the design of products and features related to automating global trade and cross-border tax compliance in retail and logistic environments. Patrick is a supply chain expert who has spent over 20 years managing global trade and customs compliance operations for SME to global customers with DHL Express and SF Express, based in Europe, Asia, the Middle East, and North and Central America. [email protected]
