Technology trends and the Posts
The Technology Challenge is Here
Since the invention of the telephone in 1843 people have been predicting the end of the postal service as we know it. Technology is consistently seen as the way to provide ‘better’, ‘quicker’ and cheaper communications. Yet, even with the advent of email and the Internet, postal volumes grew 8% in the US between 1992 and 2007. However, in recent months it looks as though the predictions are beginning to come true with many posts now starting to report a fall in volumes that cannot easily be explained by market or economic trends. The revolution in communications technologies does seem finally to be having an effect on the postal sector.
Many of the technologies we see gaining consumer and business acceptance, and affecting mail volumes, are not new but are being adopted and used in new ways – with mobile phones becoming cameras, PDAs, GPS units and personal messaging centers. It is often a behavioural change – the uses people find for technology, application and services -rather than a technological change that is having an impact on posts. Although these technologies are seen as a threat to postal services many of them can have a positive effect.
The Move to Mobile
The advent of higher speed communications, cheap computer storage and faster processors – coupled with the impact of phones such as the much hyped Apple iPhone – are bringing the concept of the ‘Star Trek’ communicator to reality. The capabilities offered on this tranche of mobile phones is bringing tremendous functionality to the individual. This is also changing the perception and expectations of communication – people want messages to be immediate, delivered to them individually when and where they want them. This is having a negative effect on the physical mail as it does not ‘fit’ with these new demands. Mail is seen as slow, delivered to a static address, and when the carrier wants to deliver it. It is not all bad news however, as there are many opportunities for the postal world in this new mobile landscape. The bridge between this mobile world and the physical world has not yet been fully exploited and there are services that can bridge the divide between the online and offline worlds.
The value of printed communication is the tangibility of the paper/material and the respect it shows for the person receiving it (Source LaPoste 2005). This contrasts with online messaging which tends to be very informal and does not show respect; indeed depending on the style of texting and emailing it can show the reverse!
Opportunities to introduce services which bring these characteristics to the mobile world are potentially huge. There are more than 2.3 billion mobile phones around the world (World Fact Book 2005) and this number is increasing at about 12% per annum, with volumes expected to rise to more than 3 billion handsets by 2010.
Near Field Communications (NFC)
This new technolo gy is being introduced by several of the major mobile phone manufacturers in the next 12 to 18 months. It provides a simple way of paying for goods, using the mobile phone as a token, and is set to revolutionise charity giving and other impulse purchase markets as well as other low value ‘cash’ transactions such at ticket purchase etc. One UK charity predicts that this technology will be worth in excess of $50 million over the next five years as people can decide to make an immediate donation as they walk past a poster or charity shop. This will mean a fall in this sector’s use of direct and unaddressed mail as the response via this new technology will theoretically be higher while the costs become lower. On the positive side NFC could revolutionise the posts’ operations through the use of low cost embedded tags eg for tracking and tracing, quality control and doorstep services such as payment etc. The cost of tags will significantly reduce as volumes increase. It is predicted by the Near Field Communication Forum that there will be more than 1 billion tags in service around the world by the end of 2007.
Social Networks
Over the past two to three years the word ‘Social’ has entered into computing parlance – social computing, social networks, social innovation etc. A Social Network is an association of people drawn together by family, work or a hobby. Professor J. A. Barnes first coined the term in the 1950s; he defined the size of a social network as a group of about 100 to 150 people. In recent years we have seen these networks develop as they have become increasingly enabled by technology, typically email, the Web and mobile phone/text messaging. Today there are more than 200 sites offering ‘enhanced’ services. Some of the sites hosting these services have grown to over 2 million users within a short number of weeks – sites such as friendster, Twitcher and Spock are the latest to enter this market, offering a way of sharing the minutia of people’s lives over the Internet. These ‘new’ social groups provide opportunities for postal operators to gather marketing information particularly on interest group sites, and also to create or host these sites and offer physical communication as part of the service – greeting cards, notes, photos etc.
Flexible Screens/ePaper
Most of these technologies have been heralded over the last five years as bringing an end to books, newsprint and magazines. The reality is that although the technology has been available, the acceptability of the technology has been poor. The tactile nature and flexibility of the printed word far outweighs the ability to download text onto a single sheet of paper or screen. There have recently been developments where manufacturers claim to have overcome some of the problems with reflection and the readability of text. Although the Sony eReader launched last year has had very poor sales figures and has already had its price discounted 40%, it may find a niche and suddenly it will take off and change the way we absorb information.
For the posts, the threat is that if the technology becomes acceptable then mail could be downloaded onto the device rather than being delivered. There are problems with archiving of the material but it is only a matter of time before these are overcome. On the plus side the postal industry could define a standard and become the deliverer of electronic media much as Apple.
Locational Intelligence
The advent of advanced mapping systems such as Google Earth has brought about a revolution in the way we see our world. Coupled with fast wireless communications, in-car GPS systems now have the ability to superimpose ‘real-world’ landscapes onto traditional maps. Add in low-cost GPS systems which are now being embedded in low-cost mobile phones etc. and there is the opportunity to provide real-time tracking information mapped onto Google Earth. This provides customers with the ability to view their delivery network as a Virtual Postal Network irrespective of which carrier is involved.
Wildcards:Paper Power and Semantic Mail
One of the major problems for technology has been the battery. Traditionally batteries have been relatively bulky with a short(ish) life span and the need to recharge frequently. Now, a paper and carbon nano-tube battery the size of a postage stamp that generates 2.3 volts of electricity has been produced. This battery could power interactive direct mail, animated stamps and printable computer screens. Such a technology could also power low-cost locational tags (RFID) and other devices which would enable a whole new raft of services based on a hybrid of paper and computer. These batteries could also be used to power equipment: how about a stack of letters with battery stamps powering a sorting machine? The downside of this technology is that paper becomes expensive as production is moved to batteries and demand increases around the world that stretches production facilities.
Semantic Mail is a concept floated in 2006 where a level of ‘meaning’ is embedded in the mail-piece or packet. HP has developed a low cost computing/storage/radio device called MicroSpot which could be embedded in a label and would store information about a mailpiece’s source, weight, destination, contents, payment, and possibly security information. Typically track and trace systems are tied to the postal operator or carrier but a system such as this would allow a carrier agnostic tracking system to be made available. The mailpiece would have the ability to transmit its whereabouts to any authorised party instead of a single carrier as tracking systems are today.
Conclusion
The ultimate impact of technology on postal services around the world is uncertain and is very much dependent on postal operators embracing rather than fearing change. The trends identified in this article are just a few out of about 20, and new opportunities and services are being launched on an almost daily basis. Posts should see this as a ‘call to arms’. The long-term benefit of postal operators viewing technology in a positive light and speculating on new products and services could be huge. It could change people’s perception of the mail as a complementary communications medium and ensure continuity of service and income in the longer term.
