Koizumi, Nonaka agree to allow postal bills to pass Diet

Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, who has pledged to privatize postal services, and Hiromu Nonaka, a Liberal Democratic Party heavyweight representing party members with vested interests in the postal sector, have agreed to the passage of four government-sponsored postal bills during the current Diet session, sources said Friday.

The unexpected agreement between the two nemeses over the issue of privatizing postal services will likely do much to avert a possible dissolution of the House of Representatives, political pundits said.

Koizumi has repeatedly hinted he would dissolve the lower house if the postal bills were defeated.

This has not sat well with Nonaka, who had been opposed to allowing Koizumi to exercise the power to dissolve the lower house.

The two apparently agreed to the passage of the bills to stave off the political chaos a dissolution would cause.

On Friday, Koizumi reiterated his determination to see the package of postal bills pass the current Diet session. "I'll do anything not only to have (the four bills) passed through the lower house, but also to enact them. I'll see to it postal services are made fully open to the private sector," he vowed.

One of the bills would allow private-sector companies to enter the mail delivery business.

Nonaka had been stubbornly opposed to the postal package. However, on the same day, he expressed support for the package at a meeting of the LDP General Council.

He said: "I'll address a meeting of postmasters of the nation's special (government-designated) post offices scheduled for Saturday and I'll tell them the LDP will work to pave the way for the smooth implementation of a planned public postal corporation in April next year."

This move was not, however, sudden. Hints of Nonaka's about-face were evident earlier in the week.

At a meeting Thursday, he talked with LDP members with vested interests in the postal sector, including former Posts and Telecommunications Minister Kozo Hirabayashi and Hiroyuki Arai, another executive LDP member. He reportedly said it was advisable for the party to allow the bills to pass in the current Diet session.

The party's leadership, including Secretary General Taku Yamasaki, has been notified of Nonaka's change of heart.

There are many bills before the Diet, but Koizumi has placed privatization of postal services at the center of his structural reforms.

The prime minister is well aware that his already dwindling popularity will suffer a further blow if the postal bills are defeated, political pundits said, adding that the political fallout from such a scenario would be devastating for the Koizumi administration.

This possibility has led to fear within the ruling coalition that Koizumi may dissolve the lower house if those with vested interests within the LDP upset Diet deliberations as they try to scuttle the bills.

However, the recent spate of money scandals involving politicians including LDP members seems to have turned the tide.

This has increased fear of a dissolution among an apparent majority of LDP members. A senior member of the faction led by former Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto said, "If a general election were called now, the LDP would certainly suffer a devastating loss."

The faction–the largest within the party–seems keen to avoid losing more Diet members.

In fact, from a strategic point of view, kicking up a ruckus over the postal bills may be the last thing the faction leadership needs. "While there are no prospective LDP leaders who could succeed Koizumi, I don't think it's wise to shake up national politics for the time being," a senior Hashimoto faction member was quoted as saying.

There apparently is another factor behind Nonaka's about-turn on the package.

Yamato Transport Co., the largest door-to-door delivery service operator, has criticized the mail-delivery privatization bill for what the firm considers overregulation of private-sector entry into the mail delivery business.

This raises the question of whether private firms would enter the business even if the bill were passed, a question that a growing number of LDP members would answer in the negative.

Nonaka seems content to let the bill through, knowing that it is highly unlikely private firms would enter the business.

Nonaka has explicitly stated on several occasions his support for the prime minister and all four postal bills.

He may also have been influenced by New Komeito, a ruling coalition partner that reportedly opposes a dissolution of the lower house and the general election that would follow it