Why the medium to long-term is good to very good for Lufthansa

LUFTHANSA Cargo has come out with a confidenceboosting assessment of the medium- and long-term prospects for the global airfreight market.
Its views on the industry’s future are spelt out in a new, unique, worldwide study which the all-cargo airline conducted in cooperation with consulting firm MergeGlobal (MGI).
It predicts that the worldwide air cargo industry will experience a strong growth surge next year as it pulls out of the nosedive which started in 2000 and gathered pace last year.
The weak global economy has taken its toll on the air cargo industry, but this is only a short-term blip, the survey reveals.
The ‘trends and forecasts’ survey has produced some fresh and independent data and analyses on the longterm perspectives for the air cargo market. Through the airline’s Airfreight Development Index (ADI) additional insight is given into shortand medium-term scenarios. Jürgen Weber, chairman of Lufthansa Cargo, notes: “No other line of business has been hit as hard by the events of September 11 as that of aviation.
“This, however, is a shortterm, at the most mediumterm phenomenon. In the long run the prospects for the air cargo market worldwide are still excellent. Our study clearly confirms this.”
The study is published in a special issue of the company’s Planet customer magazine. “It’s a confident assessment of medium and longterm prospects in the global airfreight market,” says a spokesman.
The airline claims there is nothing else like the study on offer from any of the world’s other cargo carriers.
“Its differentiated approach is equally innovative. It takes a separate look at each of the general cargo, express cargo and special cargo market segments. That way, it makes clear pronouncements not only on where and how the airfreight business will develop by the year 2007 or 2010 but also indicates which of the market segments has the best prospects,” he adds.
Dr Andreas Otto, Luthansa C ' hoard member responsible for marketing and sales, notes: “The findings of our study clearly show that, in the medium- to long-term, two-digit growth can be expected in large market segments.
“With information like that, we want to counteract recession fears and negative emotions in the market.
“Lufthansa Cargo is well poised to meet future challenges and will make the most of the opportunities arising in the global logistics market,” he adds.
Amongst the findings are:

• Airfreight volumes will increase again by an annual average of 5.7 per cent as from 2005
• Far East growth will be the strongest, with more than nine million tonnes of airfreight predicted to move from the Far East in 2010 and clear increases in all regions as from 2005
• North American airfreight will see volume increases by an annual 2.2 per cent to year 2005 and there will be a new momentum in the second half of the decade
• Airfreight volumes in the Middle East will rise by 1.6 per cent up to 2005
• Special cargo (such as temperature-controlled or shock-sensitive shipments) will grow at a faster rate than that of general cargo
• Express traffic will double by year 2007
• General cargo will show the slowest growth in the years ahead. An annual growth of 1.3 per cent is expected by 2007
• Zero growth in general freight between Europe and North America is forecast until 2007
• An annual volume of 900,000 tonnes of general cargo will be transported across the Atlantic to Europe by 2007
•The volume of express cargo shipments from Asia to destinations in Europe and
North America will increase markedly up to 2007, with a doubling of quantity to 1.3 million tonnes by year 2007.